Why the Federal Reserve will have to cut rates sooner than we think

​ Predicting the Fred’s next move given an unusual combination of a banking crises of trust, high headline inflation, a jobless number that whether is high of low will have to be judged in the context of the banking and potential liquidity crises and thus might seem like a flip of the coin, and a array of international uncertainties from the Ukraine war to the BRICS countries announcing a new currency to bypass the Dollar as a reserve currency has most economists heads spinning. While we live in the land of VUCA - Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity - it seems that two factors will result in the Fed needing to slash rates by the end of the summer.  I. Inflation isn’t as high as you think it is  While inflation still looks like a sleeping dragon, if we look at the rental component of CPI the real inflation number adjusts downwards significantly.  The rent component of CPI is 33% of the headline CPI number, food is already dropping,  The method of measuring rental costs by

The Tree, and the Mountain

​ (Written just now spontaneously Having tea with my friend the Tree) Who now is this Tree That stands here before me Along with its crooked cousin So lacking perfect symmetry Two always watching sentries  Guard against all enemies It stands tall upon on a hill  Watching over a Mountain Range Quite strange  The mountain needs a sentry Outside its serene and empty entry Or perhaps it just needs a viewer And just can't resist the lure to say: "This is me, Tree,  Don't you see My great expanse fills your view! Don't you see, it’s just Me and You and the Sky Blue But I'm the Vaster of us Two.” The Tree feels small for a little while  Then says with a crooked smile "Oh Mighty Mountain I hear your call You're the Vastest of them all.  But without this mere little Tree To whom would you say, "Look here at Me"? My view is Vast my Horizons Everlast  While all you see, is poor little me Which of us lives more free?  And one day when I finally fall You'

India: The Shining City, Atop the Hill

​ India: That Shining City, Atop the Hill   There’s a nasty fact of life that the United States (and NATO) don’t seem to want to willingly grasp about Russia, China, and to some extent India: life historically has little value in this neck of the woods when compared to the needs of the state. It might seem callous to put it like this, but it should be recognised that treating life as a material input worked as an effective, though bloody shortcut to development for both China and Russia.    Both were giant factories where human lives went in one end and a productivity benefit came out the other. It’s in this context of ethical flexibility that the West needs to view the Russia-China dynamic with the world. The world’s not all sunshine and rainbows, and we’re not in Kansas anymore.    At least 20 million Russian workers died in labour camps during Stalin’s bloody reign. This was then copied by Mao who visited Stalin and picked up large financial support as well as a copy of the dictator

India’s Russia Advantage

​ India has long been a key player in international relations, serving as an interlocutor between various nations around the globe. In recent years, India has increasingly taken on this role in relations between Russia and the United States, positioning itself as a bridge between the two powers. The history of India's relationship with Russia and the United States is complex and multifaceted, with both nations playing a significant role in India's development and evolution as a nation. India and Russia have a long history of cooperation, with Russia providing support to India during its struggle for independence from Britain and later becoming one of India's primary arms suppliers. The relationship between Russia and India has a long and colourful history that dates back to the 17th century. Despite being located on opposite sides of the globe, the two countries have had a significant impact on each other's culture, politics, and economic development. In the early 17th

India in the South China Sea

​ India has a number of strategic and economic reasons for maintaining a strong military presence in the South China Sea. This region is a major shipping route for India's trade with Southeast Asia and the rest of the world, and ensuring the security of these trade routes is crucial for the country's economic growth. In addition, the South China Sea is home to a number of disputed territories and potential flashpoints, and a strong Indian military presence in the region can help to prevent conflicts and maintain stability. One of the main reasons for India's interest in the South China Sea is the region's strategic importance as a major shipping route. The South China Sea is a vital transit point for India's trade with Southeast Asia and the rest of the world, as it is home to some of the busiest shipping lanes in the world. According to the Indian government, around 75% of India's trade by volume and around 80% of its trade by value pass through the South China

Quantum Computing: Will it break Blockchain?

​ Quantum computing has the potential to revolutionise a wide range of industries, including finance, pharmaceuticals, and logistics. In recent years, there has been a lot of excitement about the potential for quantum computers to disrupt the world of blockchain and cryptocurrency. Quantum  computing could bring significant benefits to blockchain, but first it has to first survive the threat of this raw computing power that was unanticipated not so long ago. What is Quantum Computing? Quantum computing is a field of computer science that utilizes the principles of quantum mechanics to perform computations and simulations. Quantum computers are based on quantum bits, or qubits, which can exist in multiple states at once, unlike classical bits, which can only exist in either a 1 or 0 state. This allows quantum computers to perform calculations at an exponentially faster rate than traditional computers, making them capable of solving problems that would take a classical computer years to

My Gold Haired Girl

He shot an arrow into the air It landed far, he knew not where It flew beyond this tiny world Into the next one  Death unfurled  Through the heart of a little girl With skin soft and white as pearls Who's dress was stained blood red As her parents looked on  Struck by dread Seeing their  little girl             lying dead.  But Why! Said the weeping mother With pain and cries like no other She looked upon the sky above And said God, where is thy love? That was my little girl! With golden locks and little curls How dare you be so unfair To my baby With the golden hair! Not knowing her girl with the golden hair Was an Archer in another world In this one her golden haired girl.  She tore the arrow from her breast And shot it in the air, her best  She shot the arrow in the air It landed far she knew not where  For it flew with such swift might it’s flight was no match for sight.  It landed in the next next life  Into a man gentle frail and slight Never known a day of spite